基于灰色马尔科夫模型的水资源价格的预测

Prediction of Annual Precipitation Based on Grey Markov Model

之前水价测量的研究多集中在单一水价模型的建立和参数的估算方面,而对水价预测的研究相对较少。因此,结合灰色系统理论和马尔科夫理论,建立改进的灰色马尔科夫预测模型,并利用兰州市2003—2016年的水资源价格数据进行检验,发现与传统GM(1,1)模型的预测结果比较,灰色马尔科夫模型的拟合精度更好,平均相对误差更小、更简便实用。此项研究为西部水资源价格的形成机制以及建立有序的水市场提供了科学的理论依据,同时也为兰州市水价新政策的出台和水价的制定提供了一定的决策支持。

Based on Gray System Theory and Markov theory, the improved Grey Markov Model was proposed to predict the price of water resources of Lanzhou with annual price data from 2003 to 2016 of water resource of Lanzhou, which is a typical western city short of water resources.Compared to traditional GM（ 1,1 ）model, the Grey Markov Model is featured with higher fitting accuracy and smaller average rel- ative error.Based on this simple and practical model, scientific theoretical support for formulation of the price of water resources in west China is expected to provided in the paper.