煤灰流动温度的预测研究

Study on prediction of coal ash flow temperature

利用回归分析法与Factsage软件法建立了煤灰流动温度的预测模型,并将所得预测公式与3个典型经验公式进行对比。结果表明,利用回归分析法建立的预测模型的预测效果整体优于典型经验公式,其中利用最小二乘法建立的预测公式效果最佳,误差在50℃内的概率为88.6%,在80℃内的概率为95.5%。利用Factsage软件法建立灰流动温度预测公式相关性系数为0.86,该公式对于预测煤灰流动温度具有一定的普适性和准确性。

The prediction model of coal ash flow temperature was established by using regression analysis method and Factsage software method, the results were compared with three typical empirical formulas. The results showed that this was better than that of typical empirical formula, the prediction formula which was set up by using the least square method had best effect. Probability within error of 50℃ and 80℃ were 88.6 % and 95.5 % respectively. Correlation coefficient of ash flow temperature prediction formula used by Factsage software was 0.86, which had a certain universality and accuracy for predicting the coal ash flow temperature.