税费政策调整的宏观经济效应——基于消费者异质性的新凯恩斯模型

Macroeconomic Effects of Tax-and-fee Consolidations in China

本文构建了一个包含消费者异质性的三部门新凯恩斯模型,引入商品税率、劳动所得税率、资本所得税率、社保费率冲击,实证研究了商品税率、劳动所得税率、资本所得税率及社保费率变化对宏观经济波动的贡献率及动态效应。研究发现:1.商品税率冲击对主要宏观经济变量波动的贡献率最大,其程度达到89%以上,而劳动所得税率冲击和社保费率冲击对宏观经济波动的影响较小;2.降低税费有助于刺激经济增长,而劳动所得税率和社保费率下降更有利于经济稳定与增长;3.税费减免政策有利于提高财政的可持续性;4.通货膨胀是一种"财政—货币"现象,且通货膨胀主要是成本推动型。为此,本文提出以下建议:我国政府应该加大减税力度,以降低劳动所得税率和社保费率为主,来稳定宏观经济增长,并辅以基准利率的提高来抵抗通货膨胀的压力。

This paper constructs the NK model with Consumer＇s heterogeneity including three sectors, in which government is divided into three types of fiscal sector, social security department and central bank. The tax shocks and social security fees rate shock are incorporated with the NK model to explore the contribution and the dynamic effect of the taxation policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility. The results show that （1） the shocks of good taxation contribute most in real economy than the shocks of other taxation policy, and the size of contribution on macroeconomic volatility is 65%; （2） reducing tax rates and social security fees rate stimulate economic growth, and it is more important that cutting the tax rate of labour income and lowering social security fees rate are better measures; （3） cutting tax rates and lowering social security fees rate improve the fiscal sustainability; （4）the inflation is a joint monetary-fiscal phenomenon. On this basis, the paper proposes that government should adopt active tax and fee policies---cutting labour income taxation rate and lowering social security fees rate, to spur stable economic growth, simultaneously raise benchmark interest rate to prevent inflation.