在线社交对消费者需求的影响研究——基于网络视频产业的实证分析

The Effect of Online Social Interactions on Consumer Demand——An Empirical Study on Online Video Industry

本文围绕"在线社交是否会影响消费者需求"这一核心问题,从两个国内知名的视频网站上收集了2015-2016年发布的110部视频节目的客观数据,通过建立计量模型开展了一项探索性的实证研究。研究结果表明,在线社交对消费者需求具有显著的正向影响作用。具体而言,在线社交数量每提升1%,消费者需求将增加约0.5%。此外,我们还发现,第三方评论网站的节目评分对在线社交的影响效果具有负向调节作用:对于评分较低的视频节目,在线社交对消费者需求的影响较大;而对于评分较高的节目,在线社交对消费者需求的影响效果则有所下降。最后,本文基于研究结论对相关企业和行业的发展提供了管理建议。

This article focuses on the key question of ＂whether online interactions would affect consumer demand＂, and carries out an exploratory empirical study based on the data of 110 programs released between the year of 2015 and 2016 from two popular Chinese online video websites. The results show that online social interactions have a positive impact on consumers＇ viewing demand. Specifically, with an increase of 1 percent in online social interactions, the consumers＇ viewing will increase by about 0. 5 percent. In addition, the programs＇ rating scores, from a third-party consumer reviews website, negatively moderate the relationship between online social interactions and program viewership. The online social interactions have a stronger impact on programs of lower rating scores than ones of higher rating scores. Finally, we provide managerial recommendations to the development of relevant enterprises and the industry.