定向增发市场时机选择对资本结构的影响

The Impact of Private Placement Market Timing on Capital Structure

文章以A股市场上2006年至2016年6月间非公开发行的企业为样本,运用分位数回归方法,研究定向增发市场择时对资本结构的影响。研究发现,在再融资政策的管制下,中国定向增发市场时机包含企业自主选择的时机和政府发行管制的时机。定向增发市场时机对资本结构水平高的企业具有显著影响,这种影响主要来自企业自主择时。虽然监管机构对非公开发行制定了一系列政策制度,但因为其监管力度较低,因此企业对市场时机的选择自由度较高。企业择时对资本结构具有长期显著的负向效应,政府择时对于资本结构水平越高的企业影响越大,对资本结构水平低的企业其影响仅存在于定增当年。政府可适当对定向增发加强管制,以遏制市场上投机者的炒作行为。

Applying quantile regression method for empirical analysis, this paper researched the impact of private placements market timing on capital structure in China, on the basis of last decade private placements data. Empirical results showed that the private placements had the market timing effect in China, and the market timing had a negative impact on the capital structure under the high quantile. Furthermore, enterprise independent timing and government administrative timing both had a significant impact on structure of the capital. Meanwhile, the effect of the government administrative timing on the capital structure was not significantly increased with the rise of the quantile, which means the impact of market timing on capital structure mainly came from the enterprise independent timing. In addition, this thesis founded that the influence of government timing on capital structure was relatively short and enterprise independent had continuous influence on capital structure.