政府采购招标结构模型的非参数识别与估计

Non-parametric Identification and Estimation for Structural Model of Government Procurement Bidding

为了揭示政府采购市场的定价机制,探究招标活动的经济机理,本文首先提出了一种基于可观测成交价(即赢价)建立招标结构模型的方法,分析了博弈均衡的分布;然后讨论了该模型的非参数识别,提出了一种三阶段非参数核估计方法。最后,以中央单位集中采购打印机为例,估计了政府采购招标的成本分布和期望供给曲线。研究发现,当前的政府采购机制改革有效地降低了采购成本;对于附加成本较高的商品,投标人存在成本转移行为。

It aims to reveal the pricing mechanism of government procurement and economy mechanism of bidding. In view of the particularity of the Chinese government bidding data that only the win price can be observed, we first propose a structural bidding model with the win price and analyze the game＇ s equilibrium distribution. Then, we discuss the nonparametric identification and propose the three-stage nonparametric kernel estimation. Finally, we estimate the cost and expected supply curve of printers. The study found that govermnent procurement reform is highly efficient; however, for the additional cost of goods, bidders exist cost transfer behavior.