光伏发电短期预测研究进展综述

An overview of research progress of short-term photovoltaic forecasts

随着光伏电站装机容量的迅速增加,光伏发电功率短期预测对电力部门合理规划调度用电起到了重要作用。文中对近年来国内外光伏发电短期预测的研究进展进行了综述,分析、讨论了间接预测方法和直接预测方法的优势与不足。结果表明:间接预测方法的预测精度高于直接预测方法,而直接预测方法的优势在于无需建立光照幅度预测模型,建模较为容易,其中大量使用的混合预测模型具备更好的适应性和容错性。此外,天气变化是影响光伏发电功率短期预测准确性的一个关键因素,研究人员为此提出多种解决方法以降低天气状况对功率预测的影响。

With the increasing of installed capacity of photovohaic power plants, the short-term photovohaic forecast is playing an important role inelectricity planning and scheduling of power system. This paper reviews the recent pro- gress on the research of short-term photovohaic forecasts, and discusses the advantages and limitation of direct and in- direct prediction methods respectively. The result shows that the accuracy of indirect prediction is better than that of direct prediction. Without the irradiance prediction modeling, the direct prediction is relatively simple ,. in which the widely-used hybrid forecast method is much more adaptive and fault-tolerant. In addition, this paper also concludes that weather change is a crucial factor that affects the accuracy of short-term photovohaic forecasts, and proposes sev- eral solutions to reduce the impact of weather conditions on photovoltaic forecasts.