京津冀地区城市化发展时空差异特征

The spatio-temporal changes of urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in Northern China

随着京津冀一体化协同发展的提出,如何协调城市间城市化和产业发展的差异成为目前关注的焦点。因历史原因和政策影响,尤其在城市化发展方面地区之间存在较大差异,定量识别该区城市发展的时空差异性对于制定合理的区域协同发展政策具有重要的指导意义。基于1984—2012年社会经济统计数据,通过引入偏离度指数和变异系数,从人口、土地、社会、经济四方面研究了不同时期京津冀地区城市化发展时空差异特征。研究表明:(1)京津冀地区城市化4个方面的发展均呈整体上升趋势,尤其表现在经济和社会发展方面。整体增长幅度为:经济>社会>土地>人口。(2)从发展速度看,京津冀地区人口与土地增速最快时期发生在2000—2004年;而社会与经济增速最快时期发生在1992—1996年;这些特征充分反映了我国阶段性政策的影响。(3)从城市化发展的驱动因子分析,京津冀地区人口与土地增长速度差异较小,发展趋势较为一致,呈现显著的正相关关系;经济、社会增长速度差异较小,发展趋势较为一致,表现出高度的正相关性;而人口与社会、人口与经济、土地与社会、土地与经济之间的相关性不显著。(4)京津冀地区城市化发展区域差异较大,不同时段各城市发展存在明显差异;在城市化进程中区域间最大差异性表现在土地的扩张,其次是人口增长,而经济和社会增长差异性相对较小。(5)人口、土地、社会、经济四项城市化驱动因子与城市生态因子的耦合协调度均不断提高。

How to reduce the regional differences on urbanization and economic growth for balance development among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions is currently debated. Based on statistical socioeconomic data from 1984 to 2012, the spatial and temporal urbanization characteristics of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were analyzed for four aspects including population, land, socioeconomics The development characteristics and spatio-temporal variation of all cities in different periods were discussed using the degree of deviation. We found that ： （ 1 ） An overall increase trend on urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the growth rates of the development driving factors followed a pattern of economy 〉 society 〉 land 〉 population. （2） The fastest growth of population and land occurred mainly during 2000--2004, while the fastest growth of social and economic mainly during 1992--1996. （3） An extremely significant positive correlation was found between the population and land development growth rate, as well as between the economic and social growth rates; however, there were no significant correlations between the growth rates of population and society, population and economy, land and society, land and economy. （4） The urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was characterized by both diversification and regional contrast during the development processes. We found a large difference in both land expansion and population growth, but little differences in growth rates in society and economic development, and （5）the degree of coupling of urbanization drivers of population, land, society, and economy, and ecological factors have been increasing.