应用电量误差修正的年负荷曲线预测方法

Annual Load Curve Forecasting Method Using Electricity Consumption Error Correction

现有的年负荷曲线预测方法没有充分利用负荷与电量的关联性,预测误差较大。本文提出了一种应用电量误差修正的年负荷曲线预测方法以提高预测精度。首先对预测年8 760 h负荷进行估算,然后运用负反馈原理,以年电量预测值为基准,利用季度电量弹性系数分4个季度对累加电量(整点负荷相加得到的电量估计值)进行有差别修正;最后根据电量的修正比修正全年8 760 h负荷值,取其中365 d日最大负荷值编制年负荷曲线。用该方法对云南省2013年数据进行验算,结果表明该方法能有效提高预测精度。

The existing annual load curve （ALC） forecasting methods do not take the advantage of the correlation between loads and electricity consumption, which increases the forecasting error. In this paper, an ALC forecasting method using electricity consumption error correction is proposed to improve the forecasting accuracy. First, the 8 760-hour load of the forecasting year is estimated. Then, the negative feedback principle and quarterly electricity elastic coefficients are adopted to correct the accumulative electricity consumption discriminately quarter by quarter, based on the forecasted value of annual electricity consumption. Finally, the modified proportional of electricity consumption is used to modify the 8 760-hour load, from which 365 daily peak load is extracted to compile the ALC. The proposed method is applied to verify the ALC of Yunnan Province in 2013, and the result demonstrates that it can improve the forecasting accuracy effectively.