新型城镇化下房地产去库存对房价影响的区域差异

The regional differences influence of real estate digesting inventor to house price in the new urbanization

新城镇化建设与房地产去库存一直是社会关注的热点。本文选取70个大中城市2007-2016年的面板数据,检验了房价的空间关联性,就新城镇化下房地产去库存对房地产价格影响的区域差异建立了空间面板数据模型。分析显示:各地房地产价格整体上具有正向空间相互依赖性,局部空间以类聚性为主,异质性为辅。新城镇化下房地产去库存对于各地房价也具有空间依赖性,但影响并不一致,对一二线城市房价稳定呈现的是负面影响,对三四线城市房价稳定则并不固定。

New urbanization construction and real estate inventory have become one of the hot topics.This paper adopts panel data of 70 cities from 2007 to 2016 to examine the spatial correlation of house price.Then the spatial panel data model of the regional differences influence of digesting inventor to house price in the new urbanization is built. The analysis reveal that there is the positive spatial interdependence on house price in global.But it is main to class and is supplemented by heterogeneity in local space.Under the new urbanization, real estate inventory also has the spatial dependence on the local real estate prices, but it is not consistent.The effect is negative on the stability of house price in first or second-tier cities.However,it is potential negative in third and fourth-tier cities.