改革开放以来中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异

Phased Evolution and Regional Distribution Difference of the Driving Forces for China's Export Growth since the Reform and Opening up

研究目标:研究中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异。研究方法:基于中国1978~2014年的省级面板数据,采用超越对数形式的随机前沿模型进行分析。研究发现:在经济转型期,市场化改革与对外开放的发展是中国出口增长的首要推动力;在"入世"准备期,中国出口增长由制度因素、物质要素投入协同推动;在"入世"增长期,物质要素投入成为中国出口增长的首要来源;在全球引擎期,物质要素投入协同贸易潜力主导中国出口贸易的发展;地区间出口贸易差距主要源于贸易潜力、资本与制度因素的三重差异。研究创新:对改革开放以来至2008年金融危机以后中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进进行系统研究。研究价值:针对中国贸易可持续发展面临的主要挑战,提供政策建议。

Research Objectives： Studying on the phased evolution and regional distribution difference of the driving forces for China＇s export growth, Research Methods： Based on China＇s provincial panel data during 1978-2014, this paper uses translog stochastic frontier model to analyse. Research Findings： In period of economic transition, the development of market-oriented reform and opening to the outside world were the prinmry driving forces for China＇s export grog_h; In period of preparation for accession to WTO, China＇s export growth was synergistic driven by both institutional factors and factors input; In period of economic growth post accession to WTO, factors input became the primary source of China＇s export growth; In period of global engine, factors input and trade potential began to dominate China＇s export; The regional export disparity mainly came from the a triple differentiations of trade po- tential, capital and institutional factors. Reseaw.h lnnovatiom： This paper systematicly analyses the phased evolution of the driving forces for China＇s export growth since the reform and opening up to the period after financial crisis in 2008. Researv.h Value： Providing policy recommendations for the major challenges faced by the sustainable development of China＇s trade