人民币国际化的国家异质性分析与人民币国际化进程

National Heterogeneity of Currency Internationlization:Based on the Experience of America and Japan to Study RMB Internationlization

文章利用面板数据从国家异质性的角度,分析美、日两国货币国际化成败的内在原因,并通过扣除本地需求法测算出2003~2016年人民币境外存量的走势,利用脉冲响应函数研究推动人民币国际化进程的潜在因素。基本结论是:(1)日元国际化失败是因为日元并未在国际市场中发挥完全意义上的国际货币职能,仅充当"载体货币"用于国际金融市场套利交易;(2)人民币境外存量已下跌至2009年金融危机后水平,经济"新常态"下人民币国际化进程严重受阻;(3)贸易规模的提升对人民币国际化仅存在短期促进作用,资本市场的过热将会对人民币国际地位产生负向作用,人民币币值的下降则会对人民币国际化进程产生长期的抑制效应。因此在当前经济形势下,人民币国际化战略应谨慎地稳步推行。

The official entry to SDR in 2015 markd progress of RMB internationalization,but it does not mean that the RMB internationalization strategy will be successful. The advancement of currency international status depends on the effective promotion by trade demand motive and investment demand motive. If currency internationalization only dues to the rise in the exchange rate caused by speculative holding,the final may be as Japanese yen as a flash in the pan. In this paper,according to the panel data from the perspective of national heterogeneity,we analyze the internationalization of the internal and external causes. And through the deduction of the local demand calculate trend of RMB outside stock between 2003 ~ 2016. The basic conclusion is:( 1) Japanese yen failed because it did not play a full sense of the international currency in the international market functions,only as 'carrier currency' for the international financial market arbitrage transactions;( 2) The measured foreign exchange of RMB has fallen to the level after the financial crisis in 2009,and the RMB internationalization is under the serious process of the economic ' new normal';( 3) The increase in the scale of trade has only a short-term effect. The overheating of capital market will have a negative effect. The decline of RMB will bring long-term effect on the RMB internationalization. Therefore,in the current economic situation,the RMB internationalization strategy should be cautious and steady.