十大城市群城市综合承载力及要素耦合度特征分析

Analysis on Comprehensive Carrying Capacity and Factor Coupling Characteristics of Ten Urban Agglomerations

城市群的发展已经成为国家发展战略的重要组成部分。文章以十大城市群104座城市为研究对象,通过构建城市综合承载力评价模型和要素耦合度模型,借助SPSS17.0统计分析工具,得出十大城市群城市综合承载力及其要素耦合度时空分异特征。得出以下结论:我国十大城市群综合承载力以2008年为转折点,整体呈现先减后增的趋势;二是我国城市负荷能力整体较低,区域发展进一步失衡;三是十大城市群综合承载力及要素耦合度呈现出"双高"、"双低"和"非协同"三种发展时空格局。

The development of urban agglomeration has become an important part of the national development strategy. This paper uses the ten urban agglomerations which include 104 cities as the research object. By constructing a comprehensive capaci- ty evaluation model and factor coupling model, and with the help of SPSS17.0 statistical analysis tools, the paper obtains the com- prehensive carrying capacity and spatial-temporal variation characteristics of factors coupling of the ten urban agglomerations, and makes the conclusion as follows： firstly a turning point appeared in the year 2008 for the comprehensive carrying capacity of the ten urban agglomerations, which presents an increase-following-decrease trend; secondly the load capacity of the cities in China is relatively lower as a whole and the regional development is further out of balance; and thirdly their comprehensive carry- ing capacity and factors coupling assume three kinds of spatial-temporal patterns such as ＂double high＂, ＂double low＂ and ＂non-coordinated＂ development.