关于奥巴马政府“不首先使用核武器”政策的争论

Debates on the No-First-Use Pledge of the Obama Administration

自冷战结束以来,美国的核运用政策基本维持了"首先使用核武器"的选项。美国国内推动"不首先使用核武器"政策的努力均告失败,其中包括奥巴马总统在其任内的两次努力。奥巴马推动"不首先使用核武器"政策既是政治需要,也基于他对安全威胁形势的判断。奥巴马及其支持者认为,美国的绝对军事优势使其没有必要首先使用核武器来威慑"非核"攻击,改变"首先使用核武器"政策能够缓解美国在国际核裁军领域面临的压力,降低核扩散的风险。反对派则强调,未来美国的常规军力有可能在特定区域处于劣势,因此仍需要保留首先使用核武器的选项。在美国制胜型核战略难以改变的情况下,"首先使用核武器"政策是不会被放弃的。鉴于特朗普总统的核立场趋于保守和强硬,未来美国改变"首先使用核武器"政策的可能性将更加渺茫。

Since the end of the Cold War,US has retained the option of initiating a nuclear attack in its nuclear strategy. Unfortunately,although there were No-First-Use initiatives, all of them have failed, including President Obama's two efforts. Obama made consideration of No-First-Use pledge based on not only his political needs,but also his judgment of security threats. The opponents have partially endorsed Obama's judgment,but they stressed that the United States would need to retain the option of First Use of nuclear weapons in case U. S. conventional military is at a disadvantage in some certain regions. Actually,both supporters and opponents have ignored intrinsic requirements of the war-fighting nuclear strategy of retaining the preemptive or first strike capability. In fact,these two points are the key reasons why Obama has failed to promote the No-First-Use pledge.