城市体系规模结构研究的新方法——位序累积规模模型

A New Method for Analyzing the Size Structure of Urban System:Rank Cumulative Size Model

利用位序累积规模模型与位序-规模法则定量分析2000~2014年中国城市体系规模结构的省际差异及其变化特征。结论如下:使用位序-规模法则进行区域城市体系规模结构对比与演变分析时会存在较大的不确定性,而位序累积规模模型更能准确刻画区域城市体系规模结构的特征;中国各省区β值排名靠前的多属于自然地理条件优越、社会经济比较发达的地区,其变化大致表现出增幅东大西小、增长率南高北低的特征;位序累积规模模型能较准确地反映出自然与社会经济条件对区域城市体系规模结构的影响,但随着社会经济的发展,自然地理和基础设施条件对城市体系规模分布的影响不再显著。

Based on investigating and interpreting the size structure characteristics of urban system, this article build a new method on analyzing the size structure of urban system. Adopting the resident population data of cities at county level and above, traditional rank-size rule and the rank cumulative size model proposed are used to measure the interprovincial differences and their spatial distribution characteristics of city size structure at 2000 and 2014 in China, then discussed the geographic factors which have influence on size structure of regional urban system. The results show that the rank-size rule has some shortcomings in interpreting the characteristics of the size structure of regional urban system. Particularly, when the fitting result provided by the rank-size rule is not ideal, the fl value provided by the rank cumulative size model given in this article can more realistically and objectively reflect the characteristics of the size structure of regional urban system. There is a big difference in the size structure type of urban system of provinces in China, and the β value ranks the top often belongs to the province with good physic-geographical conditions and developed socio-economic level. On the whole, the β value＇ s increase in the East is larger than in the West and its growth rate in the South is higher than in the North. Such change is similar to China＇ s population and economy center＇ s transfer trend in the past decade. Moreover, there is a close statistical relationship between the selected regional variables, such as regional population, urbanization, population density and road network density, and the value of β given by the rank cumulative size model. But with the development of the society and economy, the physic-geographical and infrastructures conditions＇ impact on urban system size distribution is not significant.