我国进出口商品结构演变、合理度测度及优化研究

The Evolution,Rationality Measurement and Optimization on the Structure of China's Foreign Trade

本文借鉴投入产出模型,利用最新国民经济投入产出表,实证测算了我国进出口商品结构合理度演变情况。研究发现,我国进口商品结构合理度降幅大于出口合理度降幅;机械设备制造、纺织皮革制造、金属制造、化工和建筑等五大支柱产业影响力系数相对稳定;非金属矿物制品业对我国经济拉动效应不断增强,采掘业推动力系数快速增长至各产业首位,推动力系数排名和进口占比排名一致性不高问题比出口更加严重,化工、机械设备制造和金属制造业同时承担着支柱产业和瓶颈产业两种任务。为此,有针对性地提出降低机械设备制造商品的进口占比、加大采掘与化工业的进口力度、提升化工和金属制造业出口占比、鼓励企业追踪支柱产业及瓶颈产业前沿技术等对策建议。

The rationality evolution of China＇s import and export commodity structure has been empirically estimated based on the input-output model and latest national economic input-output table. The study finds that the decreasing amplitude of China＇s import commodity structure is smaller than export＇s decreasing amplitude. The influence coefficient of machinery manufacturing, metal manufacturing, chemical industry, building industry, textile and leather manufacturing is relatively stable. The pulling effect of non-metal and mineral products industry on China＇ s economy is growing increasingly. The driving force coefficient of mining industry gets a rapid growth and ranks first of all industries. The rank disaccord between driving force coefficient and proportion of imports is more serious than that of exports. The chemical industry, machinery manufacturing and metal manufacturing industry undertake two kinds of tasks of pillar and bottleneck industry. The countermeasures for reducing import propitiation of machinery manufacturing goods, increasing mining and chemical industry imports, reinforcing export propitiation of chemical and metal manufacturing, encouraging enterprises to track leading technology in pillar and bottleneck industry are given in the paper.