基于OECD国家面板数据的金融风险影响因素研究

Research on Financial Risk Factors Based on Panel Data of OECD Countries

本文选取1980~2013年OECD 28个国家经济与金融的样本数据,采用面板logit模型对这些国家金融风险的影响因素进行逐步回归分析。结果显示,GDP增长率、经常账户余额占GDP比率以及总储备占GDP的比率对OECD国家金融风险的影响是负向的,即随着它们的增长,金融风险产生的概率减小;汇率对OECD国家金融风险的影响是正向的,即随着汇率的增长,金融风险产生的概率增大。

Taking the economic and financial data of 28 OECD countries from 1980 to 2013, we use the panel logit model to analyze the determinants that can affect the probability of financial risk. Results show that the GDP growth rate, current account balance to GDP ratio and the total reserve to GDP ratio have negative correlation with the financial risk of OECD countries, which means that the probability of financial risk will be reduced when they grow. Exchange rates have positive correlation with the financial risk of OECD countries, which means that the probability of financial risk will increase when it grows.