农业增长迟缓与“生产方式锁定”——一个新理论假说的提出及基于VAR模型的实证检验

Slow Agricultural Growth and “Locked Mode of Production”——A New Theory and an Empirical Test Based on VAR Model

传统理论主要基于要素投入不足来解释农业增长迟缓,文章以云南农业为例证对象,发现要素投入不足论不能很好地解释云南农业的长期增长迟缓。云南农业增长迟缓主要是由种植业增长迟缓造成,通过分析种植业生产方式,发现农户倾向于大量投入成本低、见效快且施用技术简单的生产要素来提高产量,先进的集约型生产要素及其配套技术长期得不到规模化施用。同时上述生产方式还会与农户长期形成的小农传统经营模式相互强化,使得这种落后的生产方式难以得到根本性改变,进而造成农业投入产出的规模收益递减,最终导致农业增长迟缓。基于分析结果提出种植业生产中存在着"生产方式锁定"效应,并构建VAR模型验证了该理论假说。最后基于农业生产技术与要素的提供者、农户和政府三方视角,提出破解"生产方式锁定"的政策建议。

The traditional theory explains slow agricultural growth mainly based on insufficient input factors. The paper takes Yunnan provincial agricultural as an example to find that the theory of insufficient input factors cannot explain Yunnan＇ s long-term slow agricultural growth. We find that Yunnan＇ s slow agricultural growth is mainly caused by slow planting industry growth. By analyzing the mode of planting industry, we find that farmers tend to invest extensively in low-cost and low-teeh factors of production to improve production in planting industry production. Advanced intensive factors of production and its supporting technology cannot be applied at scale for a long time. The irrational mode of production and farmers＇ small-peasant traditional management pattern, which has been shaped over a long period of time, reinforce each other. It makes the relatively backward mode of production is difficult to get the fundamental change, which would cause the agricultural input-output decreasing returns to scale, eventually lead to slow agricultural growth. Based on the analysis above, we put forward that there is a ＇ locked mode of production＇ effect in planting industry production and apply VAR model to validate the theoretical hypothesis. Finally, from the three perspectives of suppliers of agricultural production technology and factors, farmers and governments, we put forward policy suggestions to solve ＇ locked mode of production＇ effect.