水库洪水实时优化校正预报模型的探究与应用

Research and Application of Real-time Flood Correction and Forecast Model for Reservoir Flood

以经典流域水文模型——新安江模型为基础,耦合SCE-UA全局自动优化算法和AR自回归误差校正模型构建出适用于水库流域的洪水实时优化校正预报模型。根据实测的降雨径流过程对水文模型参数和流域状态变量参数进行全局优化实时校正计算,并依据预报降雨对未来一定时期内水库洪水过程进行高精度预报。选取亭下水库流域为实验对象,对亭下水库流域洪水分别进行初步预报和实时优化校正预报,两种预报结果比较分析显示,实时优化校正预报结果能更好地模拟实测洪水过程,其预报精度更高。

On the basis of classical watershed hydrological model-Xin＇anjiang Model and coupling with SCE-UA global optimization algorithm and autoregressive error correction model, a flood real-time optimization correction forecast model which is suitable for reservoir basin developed. According to measured rainfall and runoff, the global optimization real-time correction calculation is carried out for hydrological model parameters and watershed state parameters, and then a high accuracy forecast of flood process in a certain period in the future can be obtained based on rainfall forecast. Taking Tingxia Reservoir Basin as study case, the preliminary forecast and real-time optimization correction forecast of flood are carried out respectively. The comparison of results shows that the real-time optimization correction forecast can better simulate measured flood process and has higher accuracy.