美国退出TPP对蔡英文当局区域布局的影响及出路分析

The Impact of US Withdrawal from TPP on Tsai Ing-wen's Regional Layout and Its Way Out Analysis

2017年1月,美国总统特朗普宣布退出TPP,这不仅对世界政经秩序和经济发展产生重大影响,同时也对台湾造成了巨大冲击。蔡英文力争加入TPP不仅有经济上的考虑,更有政治上的意图。美国退出TPP,一方面打乱了蔡英文借此参与亚太区域经济整合以便摆脱对大陆"过度依赖"的图谋;另一方面,也使世界各国对大陆在推进经济全球化过程中的主导作用寄予更高的期待。在此形势下,台湾当局只有审时度势,改变"亲美媚日抗中"的思维和策略,务实推动两岸经贸合作,才能避免经济"边缘化",重振昔日辉煌。

The US president Donald Trump＇s announcement of the US withdrawal from the TPP in January 2017 will exert great influence on the world＇s political and economic order and the global economic development while at the same time creating an enormous impact on Taiwan. Tsai strives to join the TPP based on economic considerations but more with political intentions. As a result, the US withdrawal from the TPP, on the one hand, has upset Tsai＇s scheme to break away from Taiwan＇s ＂overdependence＂ on Chinese Mainland by participating in Asia-Pacific regional integration; but on the other hand it will make various countries in the world have higher expectations on Chinese Mainland＇s leading role in advancing the economic globalization. In this circumstance, Taiwan should judge the current situation, change its ＂pro-US-Japan but anti-Chinese Mainland＂ stance and strategy and promote the cross-Straits economic and trade cooperation with a pragmatic attitude so as to avoid its economic marginalization and get out of its economic mess.