台湾地区对中国大陆的真实投资强度研究——基于消费、投资和进出口对台湾地区向大陆投资产生需求角度的分析

The Study about the Real Dependence of Taiwan Region's Investment on the Mainland——The Analysis from the Perspective of Taiwan's Investment that is caused by the Consumption, Domestic Fixed Capital Investment of the Mainland and Entrepot Trade

本文以2005年1月到2016年7月期间,台湾地区对大陆的投资强度、中国大陆对世界各大洲的进出口强度、大陆的月度同比消费增长率和内资固定资产投资增长率的月度数据为样本,从中国大陆的消费、内资固定资产投资和进出口对台湾地区向大陆投资产生的需求角度,基于误差修正模型(ECM)分析台湾地区对大陆的真实投资强度。研究表明,大陆的消费和内资固定资产投资产生的投资需求大约分别占台湾地区对大陆投资总额的15.65%和20.37%,因此其对大陆的真实投资强度大约为名义投资强度的36.02%,而大约63.98%的台湾地区对大陆的投资额由转口贸易(进出口)的需求引起。

This paper takes the following monthly data during January 2005 to July 2016 as sample： the ratio of Taiwan＇s total oversea investment in Mainland, the ratio of Mainland import and export from and to North America, Asia, Europe, Latin America and Oceania respectively, the monthly year to year growth rate of consumption and domestic fixed investment of Mainland. Then from the perspective of Taiwan＇s Investment that is caused by the Consumption, Domestic Fixed Capital Investment of Mainland and Entrepot Trade to study the real dependence of the Taiwan＇s investment on Mainland and analyze the effect of consumption and domestic investment respectively with the error correction model （ECM）. The research shows that the consumption and domestic fixed investment of Mainland have caused about 15.66% and 20.37% of the Taiwan＇s investment in Mainland respectively. So the real dependence of Taiwan＇s investment on Mainland is only about 36.02% of the nominal investment dependence, and about 63.98% of the investment from Taiwan region in the Mainland is caused by the entrepot trading.