基于人力资源视角的延迟退休问题分析

Analysis of Delayed Retirement from the Perspective of Human Resources

以人力资源的视角作为研究延迟退休问题的切入点,对延迟退休问题进行分析;利用Excel和Matlab软件对相关数据进行处理,结合相关理论得到影响延迟退休指标的计算公式,运用定量分析法建立延迟退休年龄与就业之间的量化关系模型,根据科林·吉列恩理论建立延迟退休模型,对2017至2050年我国的人均预期寿命、实际劳动起始年龄进行预测,得到延迟退休政策执行的时间表;建立养老金收支模型,并对其进行定量分析。本文最终得到的结果是:预期寿命的提高主要源于初生婴儿死亡率的下降,而不是人寿命的延长;随着人口老龄化程度的加深,更多的人会抵制延迟退休;高学历人才延迟退休会增大社会收益,但会带来更大的就业压力。

From the perspective of human resources, the article analyzes the problem of delayed retirement. It processes the relevant data with the software of Excel and Matlab, gets the formula of delayed retirement index combined with the relevant theory,and establishes the quantitative model between age and employment of delayed retirement with the method of quantitative analysis. According to Colin Gillian theory, it establishes a delayed retirement model, predicts the average life expectancy and the actual starting and ending labor age in China from 2017 to 2050,and gets the delayed retirement policy implementation timetable. It establishes the pension balance model with the method of quantitative analysis and gets the following lesults. The improvement of life expectancy is mainly due to the decline of infant mortality rate,not the extension of human life. With the deepening of population aging, more people will resist the delayed retirement. Delayed retirement of talents with high academic qualifications will increase social benefits,but will bring about greater employment pressure.