“碳解锁”缝隙创新研究

Study on Niche Innovation to "Carbon Unlocking"

对技术种群缝隙竞争演化模型的分析表明,在"碳锁定"背景下,低碳技术在主流市场会遭遇碳基技术体制的排挤,缝隙市场能为低碳技术的发展和应用提供受保护的空间,为实现"碳解锁"创造条件。缝隙创新分为竞争性缝隙创新和互补性缝隙创新两类,相应地,"碳解锁"缝隙创新战略分为替代战略和兼容战略。二者实现"碳解锁"的路径和方式不同,替代战略包括竞争性缝隙形成、缝隙积累与分叉、体制替代3个阶段,兼容战略包括互补性缝隙形成、体制兼容和体制低碳化转型3个阶段。在"碳解锁"路径选择时需权衡这两种战略的利弊。

It is concluded that,from an evolutionary model of technology population niche competition,low carbon technology will be 'lock out' of mainstream market due to 'carbon lock-in'.By contract,niche market provides 'protected space' for the development and application of low carbon technology.Replacement and hybridization are two alternative strategies to escape from 'carbon lock-in' based on two different kinds of niche innovation,i.e.,competitive niche innovation and complementary niche innovation.These two alternative strategies mean different paths and ways to arrive at the goal of 'carbon unlocking'.Replacement strategy consists of three stages,that is,competitive niche formation,accumulation and branching,and the substitution of carbon-based technological regime by low carbon one,whereas hybridization strategy also has three stages:competitive niche formation,hybridization and low carbon transition of carbon-based technological regime.Pros and cons of both two strategies should be weighed when put into practice.