大型河道工程社会稳定风险识别与控制——以淮河RH工程为例

Social Stability Risk Assessment and Control of LargeScale River Course Projects: Taking Huai River RH Project as an Example

识别工程社会稳定风险,采取针对性风险控制措施,不仅是工程建设的需要,也是和谐社会发展的必然要求。河道工程社会稳定风险,一是源于事件制造者行为的"随机性",二是源于事件诱因的"随机性"。针对淮河RH工程建设及运行特征,综合运用多种方法,从群体意识形态和行为可能性判断利益诉求与环境供给内容及程度是否存在冲突,以及引发社会"事件"的可能性,从判别事件参与者特征及规模来确定社会稳定风险大小,并根据风险诱因、关键节点,构建事前预防、过程控制、事后完善的全过程风险控制体系。

Identifying risk factors concerning social stability and taking targeted risk control or mitigation measures is not only the need of project construction,but also the need of developing a harmonious society. Social stability risk in river course projects mainly refers to the uncertainty of the'events ' happening in the process of construction and operation which can have impact on social stability. And the uncertainty of the events that may happen,arises from the random of event producers' behavior the random of the affair incentives. Based on the analysis of the construction and operation of Huai River RH project and its characteristics,this paper uses 'engineering activity chain 'and 'interest chain',identifies the stakeholders of the construction and operation concerning the project, and analyzes different stakeholders' relationships between damage and compensation,earnings and dividends in the process of construction and operation of the project. Besides, this paper puts different stakeholders in the regional social structure and analyzes them by means of snowball sampling,semi-structure interview, focus group interview and observations. From stakeholders' ideology and action possibility,this paper tries to judge whether the demands of the stakeholders,suppliers' conditions and the degree are in conflict or deviation. Moreover,it explores the possibility of occurrence of the social'events',distinguishes feature and scale of event participants and determines the size of social stability risk. According to the incentives and critical moments of the risk occurrence, social stability risk management system should be constructed including prevention,process control and post-improvement.