中国户籍人口城镇化空间分异和机制研究

Mechanism and Spatial Variation of Household Population Urbanization in China

依据1986—2015年相关统计数据和第六次人口普查数据,利用探索性空间数据分析方法和空间计量模型,分析了中国人口城镇化水平的时空分异及影响机制。研究表明中国三大板块、各省、直辖市、自治区户籍人口城镇化水平存在的较大差异、呈现东高西低的态势,但总体上处于稳定上升的趋势。提出第二、第三产业就业机会、城市政府财政投入是促进户籍人口城镇化水平提升的积极因素,其中第二、第三产业的就业机会最为重要。

Based on relevant statistical data of 1986 -2015 and the sixth population census data, the spatial-temporal differentiation of Chinese population urbanization level and distribution mechanisms are studied by using exploratory spatial data analysis and space metering model. The results show that ： from the timing point of view,there is a big difference of the population urbanization level between each province,city, and autonomous region showing a trend of east high and west low. However on the whole the level is in a steady upward trend. The state of employment of secondary and tertiary industry is the positive element to improve population urbanization level. It is essential to focus on raising secondary and tertiary industry job opportunities so that the town’s population-carrying capacity can be enhanced.