中国对波兰出口贸易绩效及其影响因素分析——基于累积Logit模型的实证研究

Trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland and its influencing factors:An empirical analysis based on cumulative Logit model

与波兰的经贸交往是中国与中东欧国家开展贸易投资合作的重点,波兰与中国在金融、经贸和文化等多个领域都有着良好的合作关系。为了准确分析影响中国对波兰出口贸易绩效的因素,为改善中国对波兰的出口贸易绩效提出相应的合理建议,利用1990-2014年的中国和波兰贸易往来的相关数据,选取科技创新、人力资本、中波人均收入水平差距、波兰加入欧盟、中国对波兰的直接投资和中波出口贸易结构相似度作为影响中国对波兰出口贸易绩效的因素,采用累积Logit模型进行回归分析,从而估算出这些变量对出口贸易绩效的影响方向。实证结果表明,科技创新、人力资本对出口贸易绩效有显著的促进作用,而中波人均收入水平差距、波兰加入欧盟、中国对波兰的直接投资和中波出口贸易结构相似度对出口贸易绩效具有一定的阻碍效应。基于模型分析结果,从加大科技和人力资本投入、缩小中波收入差距和调整对波产品出口竞争策略等方面出发,提出了改善中国对波兰出口贸易绩效的具体建议,为"一带一路"战略的顺利实施提供决策参考。

The economic and trade cooperation between China and Poland is the focus of our trade and investment cooperation with the central and Eastern European countries.Poland and China have a good relationship of cooperation in many areas such as finance,trade and culture.In order to put forward appropriate and reasonable proposals to improve trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland,the accurate analysis of the influencing factors on the trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland is necessary.The analysis is conducted empirically based on the trade cooperation data between China and Poland from 1990 to 2014.The cumulative Logit model is applied to the regression analysis.Technology innovation,human capital,per capita income gap between China and Poland,Poland＇s accession to EU,Chinese direct investment in Poland and exports of structural similarity between China and Poland are chosen as the influencing factors on the trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland to evaluate these variables＇ influence direction of the trade performance of exports.The empirical results show thatthe techno-logy innovation and human capital have a significant role in promoting the export performance.Per capita income gap between China and Poland,Poland＇s accession to EU,Chinese direct investment in Poland and exports of structural similarity between China and Poland have some negative effects on trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland.Finally,based on the model results,specific policy recommendations are put forward to improve trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland from the aspects of increasing investment in technology and human capital,narrowing the income gap between China and Poland,and adjusting Chinese export competition strategy to Poland,providing decision reference for the successful implementation of the One Belt and One Road Strategy.