社会网络视角下的群体性突发事件演化机理研究

Research on evolution mechanism of mass incidents from perspective of social network

当前中国社会经济发展新常态背景下,"群体性突发事件"的防范应该引起足够的重视。本文首先明确社会网络在群体事件中对群体感知、决策等方面的作用;以上述作用机制为依据,采用系统动力学研究方法,将群体性突发事件的动力学系统分为媒体环境调节子系统、人群行为演变子系统与政府干预子系统,综合子系统的特征建立了群体性突发事件的演化系统的SD模型;根据对系统内部影响重要因素进行的仿真研究,得出了政府干预时间对事件发展影响显著、舆情刺激对群体性突发事件演化的正相关作用等主要结论。

Under the premise that currently the social economic development has entered a new norm in China,the prevention of mass emergencies should be paid enough attention.Firstly,the role of social network in the group perception and decision-making,etc is elaborated.Then based on the above mechanism,with the research methods of system dynamics,the dynamic system of mass emergency was divided into media environment control subsystem,population behavior evolution subsystem,and government intervention system,and the SD model of the evolution system of the mass emergency is established,according to the characteristics of the three systems.Based on the simulation of the important factors affecting the internal system,it is concluded that the government intervention time has a significant impact on the development of emergencies,and there is a positive correlation between public sentiment stimulation and the evolution of mass emergencies.