住房保障与城市经济增长协同机制研究

Research into the Synergy Mechanism of Housing Guarantee and Urban Economic Growth

以三部门经济增长模型为分析框架,探讨劳动力供给和房地产市场要素在城市经济增长中的作用机制,以及住房保障与这些要素的内在联系。研究发现:中国人口结构快速老龄化将导致劳动力供给短缺,同时土地财政的不可持续迫使政府探索新的财政收入来源,这些劳动力供给和房地产市场要素的改变将抑制未来城市经济的可持续增长。在新型城镇化战略的指导原则下,发挥住房保障对吸引劳动力的正效应,将为城市经济增长提供动力。

Based on the economic growth model of three departments, the paper explores the mechanism of labor force supply and real estate market factors in urban economic growth and elaborates the close relationship between these factors and housing guarantee. It is found that China has a rapidly aging population, which may make contribution to the shortage of labor force. Meanwhile, the unsustainability of land finance compels the government to explore new sources of revenue. These changes of labor force supply and real estate market factors will inhibit the sustainable growth of urban economy in the future. Under the guidance of the new-type urbanization strategy, the positive effect of housing gurantee on the attraction of labor force may enhance the competitive advantage and provide the power for urban economic growth.