摘要
老龄化背景下的中国经济发展方式转变正在引起热议,通过构建包括老龄化率和少儿抚养比的非齐次需求效用模型,分析人口因素对产业结构的影响。基于产业结构合理化与高级化两个维度,利用中国1989—2013年省级面板数据,采用系统广义矩估计方法,实证检验人口老龄化对中国产业结构的影响。结果表明,老龄化有利于产业结构合理化,而不利于产业结构高级化,控制其他经济、制度和人口变量后,结论仍然稳健有效。
In the context of aging, the transformation of economic development mode in China leads to hot debate.Based on the demand efficacy mode of the aging ratio of population and child-age dependency ratio(CDR),the paper analyzes the impact of population factor on structure. Then, it uses System-Generalized Method of Moments(SYS-GMM)and data collected from 1989 to 2013in China to empirically test the impact of aging on China's industrial structure from the perspective of industrial structure rationality and improvement.The results show that aging is beneficial to industrial structure rationality and does harm to industrial structure improvement.By means of controlling various variables, including economy, system and population,the findings remain robust.
出处
《河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2017年第1期29-36,共8页
Journal of Hohai University：Philosophy and Social Sciences
基金
国家统计局重点项目(2015LZ28)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金重点项目(2012ZDIXM025)
