交通运输、经济增长与碳排放之间的互动关系研究——基于PVAR模型

Interactive Relationship among Transportation, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions Based on PVAR Model

选取2000—2014年中国30个省市的面板数据,通过面板协整检验和PVAR模型实证,研究了交通运输、经济增长与碳排放之间的互动关系.结果表明:全国范围内交通运输、经济增长与碳排放之间存在长期的均衡关系,且两两之间的互动效应呈现倒U型;高经济区的碳排放对经济增长的影响显著,交通运输和碳排放对经济增长存在单向影响关系;低经济区交通运输对经济增长的刺激作用明显,碳排放随着经济增长和交通运输水平提升显著增长.

With the provincial panel data of thirty provinces during the period of 2000 to 2014 in China and by using the co-integration equation and PVAR model, this paper explores the interactive relationships among transportation industry, economic growth and carbon emissions. The results indicate that a long-term balanced relationship among transportation industry, economic growth and carbon emissions, and dynamics effects like inverted U. It can be seen that it advantaged to expand the economic growth by stimulating much more increase carbon emissions in high economic provinces. But it exists unidirectional relationships among transportation, carbon emissions and economic growth. And it stimulates the change of economic growth is conductive to promote the level of transportation. With the economic growth and the improvement of transportation, carbon emission increased significantly in low economic provinces.