“理性”与“感性”之间:上海流动人口迁居意愿研究

Between Sensibility and Rationality:Study on Shanghai Migrants' Residential Mobility Intention

中国大城市已进入"移民城市"时代,提升流动人口居住意愿对保持城市发展活力具有重要意义。对上海流动人口的迁居意愿与再流动意向进行研究,并采用Logistic回归分析方法探讨影响机制。研究发现,在当前"城乡二元结构"与"城市内部二元结构"下,大量流动人口处于幸福感低但定居意愿强的状况。在再流动地的选择上,返乡是流动人口再流动的主要选择。在影响机制上,家庭收入高、拥有住房、家庭成员共同生活的流动人口定居意愿较强,而经济收入低、租赁住房、家庭成员离散的流动人口迁居意愿较强,且流动人口定居行为呈现出明显的"居住惯性"。在流动人口再流动意向上,呈现出受教育水平越高、家庭负担越小,继续向其他城市流动的可能性越大,而年龄越大、家乡发展环境越好则返乡的可能性越高。在"十三五"发展期,建议尽快将长期定居城市但发展能力弱的流动人口及其家庭纳入城市福利保障体系之中,减少流动人口入户的"选择性歧视"。

In the era of the ＂city of migrant＂, it is of great significance to improve the settlement intention of floating population for the vitality of urban development. In this paper, researches on settlement intention and re-mobility of floating population was conducted in Shanghai, a typical example of big city in China. Moreover, Logistic regression analysis method is employed to discuss the influencing mechanism of migrants＇ living willingness. In general, those with higher household income, a house or who live with families have a strong intention to settle down in the city. However, those who have lower income and live alone in rental houses are more likely to move to other places. In addition, the longer the immigrants stay in the city, the higher possibility of settlement in urban there will be. Hometown is the main destination for migrants＇ re-mobility. During the 13th five-year plan, migrants who live in the city for a long time but with poor development ability should be provided with real urban households instead of being selectively discriminated.