东道国制度风险与中国OFDI区位选择——基于逆向投资与顺向投资的比较

Risks from Host Country's Systems and China's OFDI Location Selection——A Comparative Study of Reverse and Forward Investment

基于2003-2014年中国对45个东道国直接投资的面板数据,通过顺向投资和逆向投资两个样本进行对比。研究发现:无论是顺向投资还是逆向投资,中国企业都偏好低经济制度风险和低法律制度风险的国家,但对政治风险考察的结果却不一致,在顺向投资中,中国企业显著偏好腐败程度控制低和政府效率低的国家;在逆向投资中,中国企业偏好表现不明显。对于东道国市场和自然资源,无论是顺向还是逆向,中国企业均有显著偏好,地理距离的远近对投资多少有明显的影响。

Based on China＇s direct investment panel data in 46 host countries during 2003-2014, the paper makes a comparative study of reverse and forward investment. The result indicates that China＇s enterprises prefer to invest in countries with low economic system risks and legal system risks whether it is reverse or for ward investment, but as to political risks, they prefer to choose to make forward investment in the countries with loose control of corruption and low government efficiency. As to reverse investment, China＇s enterprises show no remarkable preference. They prefer to make both reverse and forward investment in markets and natural resources of the host countries. The geographical distance has a marked opposite impact on investment amount.