人口红利与中国制造业国际竞争力

Demographic Dividends and International Competitiveness of China's Manufacturing Industry

本文针对制造业行业面板数据,运用多元回归、费景汉-拉尼斯分解等方法研究人口红利等因素对中国制造业国际竞争力形成的影响及贡献度,分析了人口红利提升制造业国际竞争力的影响和制约因素。研究表明,人口红利、创新能力、管理水平、地理集聚度、对外开放度的增加均能够在一定程度上提升制造业国际竞争力,物质资本水平越高、人力资本水平越高、劳动力市场灵活度越高,人口红利提升制造业国际竞争力的效果越明显,人口红利提升国际竞争力相关因素影响和制约的程度因行业性质不同而有所差异。

According to the panel data of 16 manufacturing industries from 2001 to 2013,this paper makes a multiple return analysis on factors such as the demographic dividend and the international competitiveness,then uses the Fei-Ranis decomposition method to analyze the contribution of factors such as demographic dividends to the formation of the international competitiveness of China＇s manufacturing industry,and finally analyzes the factors which can influence and restrict the procession of demographic dividends in improving the international competitiveness of China＇s manufacturing industry. The empirical analysis shows that： the promotion of demographic dividends,the capacity of innovation,the management level,the agglomeration degree of geographical space and the opening degree can improve the international competitiveness of China＇s manufacturing industry. The increase of physical capital level,human capital level and the flexibility of labor market can all contribute to the procession of demographic dividends in improving the international competitiveness,and the degree of the influence and restriction of these three factors to the procession of demographic dividends in improving the international competitiveness is also different due to the nature of these industries.