中国经济波动的福利成本与卢卡斯论断再检验

Welfare Cost of Chinese Economic Fluctuations and Reexamination of Lucas' s Judgement

本文检验了卢卡斯论断对中国的适用性,用经济波动福利成本的绝对大小和相对大小两个标准进行判断,结果表明中国数据并不支持卢卡斯论断,同时美国数据的测算结果对卢卡斯论断仍然有良好支持：（1）中国经济波动的福利成本λ普遍超过消费水平的1%,经济波动与经济增长的福利成本比值λ/ω一般在10%-100%,甚至更大;（2）美国经济波动的福利成本λ小于消费水平的1%,经济波动与经济增长的福利成本比值λ/ω普遍小于10%;（3）卢卡斯基准模型关于消费序列的设定缺陷导致高估美国经济波动的福利成本,同时低估了中国经济波动的福利成本。

The paper examines the applicability of Lucas＇s judgement cost of economic fluctuations, it is found that Chinese economic data does to China. Using both relative and definite welfare not support Lucas＇s judgement, while American economic fluctuations is greater than 1% of per of economic growth is between 10% - 100%, or even greater. Welfare cost of American economic fluctuations is less than 1% of per capita consumption by comparison, and ratio of welfare cost of economic fluctuations to that of economic growth is less than 10%. The defect of Lucas＇s model on consumption process leads to overestimating the welfare cost of American economic fluctuations, and underestimating that of Chinese economic fluctuations.