货币政策透明度与宏观货币调控有效性——基于跨国面板数据经验分析

Transparency and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy:Empirical Evidence from Panel Data Across Countries

本文选取2000—2010年88个经济体的跨国经验数据,基于透明政策直接作用和对实际干预工具辅助调控视角,对货币政策透明度与货币政策有效性之间的关系进行深化和拓展研究。研究发现:(1)货币政策透明度增加对产出存在正向促进作用,有助于低通胀目标实现,并且发达国家的货币政策透明度的宏观效果优于欠发达国家;(2)货币政策透明度改善可促进数量型与价格型政策工具的产出调控效应,但是弱化了二者的价格调控效应,若货币当局对通胀赋予较高权重则大幅提升政策透明度并非最优选择。总体而言,增强货币操作透明度有助于货币宏观调控福利优化。考虑到当前中国面临经济下行和通货紧缩双重压力,新常态下中国货币政策操作应遵循稳步透明化原则,不宜过快。

This paper selects the data from 88 countries from 2000 to 2010, based on the direct action and auxiliary tools of policy transparency, analyzes deeply the relationship between transparency and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The research suggests that ： （ 1 ） Monetary policy transparency increase output, contribute to low inflation target, and the effect of the monetary policy transparency is better in developed countries. （2） Monetary policy transparency can promote output regulation effect of quantitative and price policy tools, but weaken the price regulation effect. In a word, the more transparent monetary policy is, the better welfare of monetary macro-control will optimize. Facing the economic downturn and deflationary pressure, China＇s monetary policy should follow the principle of steady transparent operation, rather than too fast.