公众预期与房地产市场的短期相关性——基于微博信息的实证研究

Short-term Correlation Between Public Expectation and Housing Market——Based on Microblog Information

本文通过中文微博舆情系统挖掘信息构建房地产市场乐观预期指数。基于北京市商品房市场数据,格兰杰因果检验和自回归预测模型结果显示预期指数在短期内影响北京商品房销售和库存变化,且可用于预测北京房地产市场短期趋势。但是,公众预期指数与房价没有显著相关性。研究认为公众舆情指标可及时揭示公众对房地产市场及相关政策的反应,它有助于提高房地产市场预警系统的动态预测能力,可用于监测和评估相关政策影响。

Using information from an online public mood search and analysis system of microblog, this paper constructs an index that measures the public＇s optimistic expectation for housing market. With data of housing market of Beijing, through Granger causality tests and autoregressive prediction model it is shown that the public expectation can affect house sales and changes of inventories in short-term, and it can predict the market to some extent. However,it is not significantly correlated with house price. The paper suggests that the public mood index can reveal the response of the public to real estate market and policies in real time. It helps improving dynamic prediction of housing market and can be used to monitor and evaluate policy impacts.