摘要
本文基于事件研究法,考察了2008—2015年期间的重大监管改革事件和外部冲击事件对中国银行业预期盈利水平的影响。结果表明,"三办法一指引"出台、"七不准、四公开"公布、资本办法实施、雷曼破产、"钱荒"等5个事件对银行预期盈利有显著负向影响;监管架构改革、4万亿刺激计划等2个事件对银行预期盈利有显著正向影响。同时,银行预期盈利对利空事件的反应较快。在此基础上提出相关建议和措施。
With the event study method, this paper examines the effects of key regulatory reform and external shock events of domestic commercial banks between 2008--2015 on bank expected profitability. The empirical analysis shows that new loan rule, supervision of the commercial bank service charges, capital regulation, the bankruptcy of Lehman and money shortage have significant negative effects, while the regulatory structure reform and economic stimulus plan have positive effects. The effects of the bad events are stronger than that of the good events. Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions and measures.
作者
冯超
FENG Chao(Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 30022)
出处
《经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期58-65,共8页
Research on Economics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"人民币国际化进程中我国货币政策与汇率政策协调研究"(11&ZD017)
国家自然科学基金项目"人民币国际化进程中实际有效汇率的合理定价研究--基于汇率战略博弈的视角"(71173151)
"新沃集团"学术专项奖金
关键词
监管
预期盈利
外部冲击
事件研究法
regulation
expected profitability
external shock
event study