不同对流参数化方案对华北一次暴雨过程预报效果的模拟试验

The effect of different cumulus parameterization schemes in WRF on heavy raifall in North China

积云对流活动通过改变大气的能量、质量输送和分布对降水过程有着直接影响，对大气环流和气候变化也起到十分重要的作用，是大气和气候模式中最难以描述的物理过程之一。本文利用中尺度非静力模式WRFfV3．2．1版本），采用网格嵌套技术，选用Kain-Fritsch（newEta）、Betts-Miller-Janjic、Grell-Devenyi（以下简称KF、BMJ、GD方案）三种积云对流方案，对2010年8月18-19日华北地区的暴雨过程（以下简称8．19过程）进行了敏感性试验。从降水落区和强度方面对总降水预报性能进行了对比分析，结果表明：选用不同的积云对流参数化方案，可以不同程度地模拟这场暴雨的范围和强度，综合不同分辨率下各方案对暴雨的模拟效果可以得到：KF方案模拟的雨带范围和降水强度与实况拟合的最好，其次为GD方案，最后为BMJ方案，所得结论对我国华北强降水预报和中尺度模式中的积云对流参数化方案在业务和研究方面有相当的参考价值。

Cumulus convection is one of the distribution of energy and mass in the atmosphere. primary physical processes influencing the transportation and A heavy rainfall during August 18-19, 2010 in North China （hereinafter referred to as 8.19 process） was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast modeling system （WRFV3.2.1 version）. The study was carried out with three cumulus parameterization schemes of Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Janjic and Grell-not-Devenyi （hereinafter referred to as KF, BMJ, GD scheme） of the 36 km, 12 km and 4 km resolution, respectively. From the rainfall area and intensity of precipitation,forecast performances （model performance） are compared, the simulation results show that the choose different cumulus convection parametric scheme can result in different degrees of simulation effect including the scope of the rain and intensity including some false center. Comprehensive different resolution to heavy rains of each scheme simulated result can be obtained： KF scheme performs better than other schemes at simulating both the heavy rainfall center and strength, then the GD scheme and BMJ scheme. The conclusion is of certain reference value in the rainfall forecast and the mesoscale model microphysical processes in operation and research