土地财政、住房价格与农村剩余劳动力转移

Land Finance,Housing Price and Rural Surplus Labor Transfer

城乡之间劳动力合理流动是提高资源配置效率的重要举措,是推动城乡经济社会一体化发展的内在要求。本文利用1999—2013年中国31个省级行政区域的面板数据,实证检验土地财政和住房价格对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响,研究发现,土地财政促进了农村剩余劳动力转移,对农村剩余劳动力转移产生倒U型的动态影响效应,而房价则抑制了农村剩余劳动力转移,并且房价部分中介了土地财政对农村剩余劳动力转移的作用。进一步分析发现,土地财政和房价对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响呈现出显著的区域差异和阶段异质性,土地财政显著促进中西部地区农村剩余劳动力转移,但对东部地区影响不显著,2004年以后,随着土地财政收入的快速增加,土地财政对农村剩余劳动力转移的促进作用大幅增强。

The rational flow of labor between urban and rural areas is an important way to improve the efficiency of the resources allocation,which is also the inherent requirement of promoting the integration of urban and rural economic and social development.By using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1999 to 2013,this paper empirically studies the effect of land finance and housing price on rural surplus labor transfer.It is found that land finance promoted the transfer of rural surplus labor,which generates a dynamic effect of the inverted U type,while housing price curbed the rural surplus labor transfer,which plays a partial intermediary role in the effect of land finance on the rural surplus labor transfer.Moreover,land finance and housing price on the influence of rural surplus labor transfer has a significant regional difference and periodic difference,and land finance significantly promote the midwest rural surplus labor transfer,which has a negative effect on the eastern region.After 2004,with the sharp increase of land finance,the role of land finance in promoting rural surplus labor transfer shows a significant increase.