目的国经济政策不确定性对来源国出口动态的影响

Impacts of Economic Policy Uncertainty of Destination Countries on Export Dynamics of Original Countries

尽管已有部分学者从不确定性的角度对2008—2009年全球爆发的"贸易大崩溃"事件的成因进行了解释,但迄今为止鲜有文献系统和深入地考察经济政策不确定性对国家或地区的出口动态的影响。为此,本文利用世界银行开发的世界出口动态数据库,在经济政策不确定性月度指数(BBD)的基础上构造了出口目的国的年度经济政策不确定性指数,进而考察了目的国的经济政策不确定性对来源国出口动态的影响。研究发现:(1)目的国经济政策不确定性的加剧会导致来源国出口退出数量的上升,而对来源国的出口者、进入者、进入生存者及现存者数量的影响均不显著;(2)目的国经济政策不确定性的加剧会导致来源国的出口者、进入者、进入生存者和现存者的平均出口的下降,但对来源国退出者的平均出口额的影响不显著;(3)目的国经济政策不确定性会导致来源国出口企业退出率上升,同时对进入企业的存活率也存在一定的负面效应;(4)目的国经济政策不确定性对来源国出口产品动态的影响不显著。本文研究结论有助于深化对外贸增长动力机制及贸易创造的外部约束条件的认识,同时也为思考如何应对复杂多变的外部经济环境以确保对外贸易的持续健康发展这一议题提供了相应的政策启示。

Although some scholars explained the cause of the great trade collapse from 2008 to 2009 from the perspective of uncertainty, few researchers explored uncertainty as one of the potential factors to affect export dynamic Therefore, this paper uses export dynamic database constructed by the World Bank, and constructs the annual economic policy uncertainty index based on the BBD monthly index, then investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty of destination countries on export dynamics of original countries. The results show that ： （ 1 ） the increase of economic policy uncertainty of destination countries leads to the rise of original countries＇ exporters, but has no significant effect on the numbers of exporters, entrants, surviving entrants and incumbents ; （ 2 ） the elevated economic policy uncertainty of destination countries results in the decline of average export value of exporters, entrants, surviving entrants and incumbents, but has no significant effect on the export value of exporters ; （ 3 ） the elevated economic policy uncertainty of destination countries leads to the increase of firms＇ exit rate, and has a negative effect on firm＇s survival rate ; （ 4 ） the increase of economic policy uncertainty of destination countries has no significant effect on the product dynamics. This study helps to deepen the dynamic mechanism of trade growth, and also provides some policy implications of how to cope with the complex and changeable external economic environment to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of foreign trade.