服装出口退税政策效应分析--基于产品异质性及国际竞争视角

Effects of Export Rebate Policy of Apparel Industry——From the Perspective of Product Heterogeneity and International Competition

本文基于产品异质性及国际竞争视角,通过定量模拟中国多种差异化出口退税政策组合,同步评估每一组合对出口量(额)、出口结构、贸易盈余和国家税收等的影响。研究结果表明,一是可以取消对棉制、毛制、丝麻类服装的出口退税;二是单纯依靠出口退税政策是不可行的,即使采用差异化的出口退税政策,也不能同时实现(A)稳定出口量和就业及(B)优化产业结构两个目标。

From the perspective of product heterogeneity and international competition, this paper sets up a quantitative simulation of China＇s differential export rebates, and evaluates the effect on China＇s apparel export volume, export structure, trade surplus and tax revenue. The simulation demonstrates that the cancellation of export rebates of cotton, wool and silk apparel could be considered. However, relying on the export rebate policy only is not feasible. Even if applying differential export rebate policies, it still cannot simultaneously keep export volume and employment stable or update industrial structure