流通业对新型城镇化发展的影响

The Impact of Circulation Industry on New Urbanization Development

本文利用2005—2014年省际面板数据探究中国流通业对新型城镇化发展的影响,并构建指标体系,确定面板数据模型。检验结果表明,各变量序列为一阶单整序列并存在协整关系,简单回归分析显示人均社会消费品零售总额和流通业从业人员占比每提高1个百分点,分别会带动城镇化提高0.172 8和0.140 8个百分点;为提高回归分析的可靠性,本文加入控制变量(人均GDP和人均货物周转量)进行再次回归估计,回归系数仍为正数,表明流通业发展对新型城镇化具有长期稳定的正向促进作用;再取解释变量与控制变量的滞后项建立流通业对新型城镇化发展的短期影响模型,短期影响系数也为正数。实证研究表明,不管从长期或短期来看,流通业发展对新型城镇化具有正向促进作用。

The paper exploresthe impact of the circulation industry on new urbanization development in China by using provincial panel data from 2005 to 2014.It then builds the index system and defines the panel data model.Statistical test results show that the variable sequences is Ⅰ（1） and there is a co-integration relationship,while simple regression analysis shows that the per capita total retail sales of social consumer goods and practitioners＇ employment rate of the circulation industry increase every one percent will promote urbanization by 0.170,8%and 0.142,8%respectively.To improve the reliability of regression analysis,by adding control variables（per capita GDP and per capita freight turnover）for regression estimation again,the regression coefficient is still positive,which shows that the circulation industry has long-term stable positive promoting effect on new urbanization development.Using lag item of the explain and control variables to set up the short-term impact regression model of the circulation industry,the regression coefficient is positive,too.The empirical research shows that there is a positive promoting effect of the circulation industry on new urbanization development whether long or short terms.