摘要
The fiscal sustainability of China and the United States is of major concern globally. Based on comparative data analysis, this paper reveals that the government debt level of both countries is within the normal range. Robust growth prospects of both countries will also vigorously support their future mitigation of government debt level. Comparatively speaking, China＇s government debt level is healthy and, despite extensive concerns, even its local government debt is not very high. The assessment that China may encounter a crisis is not supported by evidence. Yet in the long run, both countries will face pressures from increased fiscal spending on elder care and healthcare stemming from an ageing population, which will threaten their fiscal sustainability. These challenges require both countries to speed up reforms of elder care and healthcare. Specifically, China needs to focus on elder care reforms and the US should attach more importance to healthcare reforms.
中美两国的财政可持续是全球关注的大事。本文基于数据的比较分析表明,当前中美两国政府债务的状况并非处于异常区间。相对而言,中国政府债务的状况尚处在健康空间。即使是社会各界广为关注的中国地方政府债务,对其可能存在危机的判断也并没有证据支持。但就长期而言,中美两国都将面临由于人口老龄化所带来的养老、医疗保健领域财政支出快速上涨的压力,这将为两国财政可持续发展带来严峻挑战。面对这种严峻挑战,中美两国都需要未雨绸缪,加快养老、医疗保健等领域的制度改革步伐。
