基于加乘混合模型的校园交通安全定量评价及优化措施——以东北林业大学为例

Quantitaive Evaluation and Improvement Measures on Campus Traffic Safety Based on Additive/Multiplicative Mixed Model——With the example of Northeastern Forestry University

随着我国居民机动车保有量的快速增长,大学校园中机动车与行人的冲突日益显著。现有大学校园交通安全研究普遍仅从定性分析入手,本文以定量评价大学校园交通安全为目的,根据现行国家标准及校园交通状况确定各指标量化方法,并采用加乘混合模型,以东北林业大学为例进行综合交通安全指数及各指标的定量评价,旨在根据数据有针对性地提出校园交通安全优化措施,以期为从规划与管理角度提升大学校园交通安全水平提供参照。

With the speeding acceleration of residents＇ motor vehicle ownership, the conflict between motor vehicle and pedestrians on campus become more striking. Most researches on campus traffic safety are confined to qualitative analysis, starting from the quantitative aspect, based on national standards and current situation of campus traffic, the paper defines quantification methods of various indexes, and together with additive/muhiplicative mixed model, and make a quantitative evaluation on comprehensive traffic safety index number and various indexes through the experimental study accomplished in Northeastern Forestry University. Based on the statistics, it aims at proposing effective improving measures on campus traffic safety, and providing references on improving campus traffic safety from the perspective of management.