中日韩自贸区“轮辐”效应研究——基于要素集聚及产业视角的分析

Research on "Hub and Spokes" Effect of Free Trade Agreement among China,Japan,and Republic of Korea:In the Perspective of Element Agglomeration and Industry

随着东北亚经济一体化的不断深入发展,中日韩之间构建自贸区已经成为发展趋势,而自贸区的"轮轴—辐条"效应也越来越受到关注。通过比较中日韩的要素及产业优势,并运用GTAP模型模拟分析中日韩自贸区的"轮辐"效应,研究表明:1.在宏观经济影响方面,以中国为"轮轴"的自贸区在GDP、进出口等方面能够提升中日韩自贸区的整体经济水平,而且福利水平提升最明显。2.在各国或地区产业部门的产出变化方面,中国的产出主要集中在谷物和作物、纺织及制衣业领域,日本则是重工业领域,而韩国是畜牧业和肉制品、加工食品、纺织及制衣业等方面,这充分体现了三国在产业上的优势互补,同时也是自贸区形成的基础和保证。中国在推进区域经济一体化进程中,应该积极构建以自身为"轮轴"的自贸区体系。

With the deepening development of East-Asia economic integration,the construction of Free Trade Area between China,Japan,and Republic of Korea(ROK) has become a trend,and the 'Hub and Spoke' effect of Free Trade Area has been obtained more and more attention. In this paper,by comparing the elements of China,Japan,and ROK and industrial advantages,and making use of the GTAP model in order to make empirical analysis on the 'Hub and Spoke' effect,it shows that :(1) In terms of macroeconomic impact,China as the 'wheel' of Free Trade Area,can promote the overall economic level of the regional GDP,import and export,and in the most obvious welfare level compared to other situations.(2) In the output changes of national or regional industrial sectors,China's output are mainly concentrated in the field of grain and crops,textile and garment industries. Japan is in the heavy industry field,while ROK is in the animal husbandry and meat products,processed food,textile,clothing industries,and etc. Complementary advantages of the three countries in different industries are obvious. In the process of promoting regional economic integration,China should actively establish itself as the 'wheel' system in Free Trade Area.