中韩关系的不确定性因素及其战略应对

Sino-ROK Relation:Uncertainty and Strategy in Response

建交近25年来,中韩关系有着跨越式发展,其复杂性也不容忽视,蕴藏着诸多不确定性的因素,在一定程度上制约着中韩合作的预期。以不确定性因素的影响与管控为视角,解析中韩关系的不确定性因素和确定性因素,尤其针对美国地缘布局、韩国安全战略、朝鲜核武动向、中韩民间认知差异等因变量,提出如下政策建议:理性认识中韩关系的发展趋势,强调合作仍是大势所趋,要不断深化相互间的理解与包容,坚守作为共同利益的半岛无核化,有效利用中韩经贸的外溢效应,推动完善双边合作机制的有效性,通过人文交流促进在中韩两个社会形成价值观相互包容、相互借鉴的氛围,夯实民间互信的基础。

Over the past 25 years since the establishment of diplomatic ties,Sino-ROK relationship has developed by leaps and bounds,and its complexity cannot be ignored either. Actually,there are many uncertainty factors in the Sino-ROK relations,and to a certain extent,they have restricted the cooperation expectation between the two countries. From the perspective of the impact and control of uncertainty factors,this article will analyze the uncertainty and certainty of Sino-ROK relations,especially the United States geo-political positioning,the ROK security strategy,the DPRK nuclear-weapon trends,and the cognitive difference between Chinese and Korean folk. With that,this article will bring up the policy proposals like that :to understand the development trends of Sino-ROK relations rationally,and stress that the cooperation is still inevitable;to deepen bilateral mutual understanding and tolerance,and keep the peninsula denuclearization as the common interest;to effectively utilize the spillover effects of Sino-ROK economy and trade,and improve the effectiveness of bilateral cooperation mechanism;to promote the atmosphere in which the social values in China and ROK will be mutual tolerance and mutual reference,and consolidate the basis of civil trust.