摘要
基于非线性阈值协整模型对我国人民币实际有效汇率与出口贸易的动态关系进行检验,结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率对我国出口总额的影响显著依赖汇率变化的幅度而呈现出非线性转换,机制转换的阈值为2.07%。人民币实际有效汇率在一定范围内升(贬)值,汇率对我国出口贸易的影响相对较小;但如果人民币实际有效汇率大幅度变动,则汇率会对我国出口贸易产生大的影响。人民币汇率制度改革要采取渐近式的策略,适当控制汇率的变动幅度,减轻人民币升值对出口贸易的负面作用。
Based on the nonlinear threshold cointegration model testing the dynamic relationship between Chinese RMB real exchange rate and the export, the results show that the influence mechanism on total exports existence of nonlinear smooth transition. Mechanism transformation depends on the change of RMB real exchange rate, the threshold value is 2.07%. When the RMB real effective exchange rate within a certain range of change, the impact on the export in our country is relatively small, but if the RMB real effective exchange rate changes significantly, the impact on Chinese export will be larger. The RMB exchange rate system reform should take the strategy of incremental, control the exchange rates appropriately, to decrease the negative effect on the export trade when RMB appreciated.
出处
《金融理论与实践》
北大核心
2017年第7期76-80,共5页
Financial Theory and Practice
关键词
阈值协整
人民币汇率
出口
非线性
threshold cointegration
exchange rate
export
nonlinear
