改进灰色理论模型在海相深厚软土路基沉降预测评估中的应用

Application of the Improved Grey System Theory in Prediction and Assessment of Marine Deep Soft Roadbed Settlement

海相深厚软土路基的工后沉降预测是当今铁路建设中的重大难题,灰色理论为解决这一问题提供了可能。在GM(1,1)模型基础上,考虑量测数据不等时间间隔,建立路基沉降的非等间距等维的模型,并引入缓冲弱化算子,消除灰色预测模型的无限增长性。本文以广珠铁路珠海西站为例,运用改进GM(1,1)灰色理论预测海相深厚软土路基沉降,并与常规预测方法进行比较,研究结果表明改进GM(1,1)灰色预测法具有很高的精度,要优于传统方法。

The prediction of post construction settlement of deep soft soil subgrade is a difficult problem in railway construction,the grey theory provides the possibility to solve this problem. On the basis of GM（1,1） model,considering unequal time intervals when measuring data,a roadbed settlement model with unequal intervals but equal dimension was established. The model introduces the weakening buffer operators which eliminate the infinite growth of grey prediction model and effectively improve the prediction accuracy. Taking Zhuhai West Railway Station in the Guangzhou-Zhuhai railway as an example,this paper uses grey system theory to predict the railway roadbed settlement.Compare with c onventional prediction methods,and the results show that the improved grey prediction method has high accuracy,and is superior to traditional methods.