中国碳排放动态演进的区域差异及其影响因素——来自省际面板数据的经验证据

Regional differences and influencing factors of carbon emissions in China:empirical evidence from provincial panel data

首先根据中国实际修正碳排放因子,并据此估算了各省及全国1995—2014年的碳排放量。引入经济、社会、政治、技术等影响因素,构建了一个基于面板数据的计量经济模型,分别考察了全国及东部、中部、西部和东北地区碳排放长期、短期动态演变过程的区域差异及其影响因素,发现选用的经济、社会、政治、技术因素几乎都能解释所建计量模型的98%以上,尤以经济因素和技术因素的影响更大。经济因素对全国及东部、中部地区碳排放动态演变的长期趋势和对全国与所有地区碳排放的短期波动都具有显著的正向作用,技术因素对全国及所有地区碳排放动态演变的长、短趋势都具有显著稳定的正向作用;显示中国在此期间经济高速增长过程中,存在严重的过度能耗、过度碳排放的增长质量问题;技术因素对碳减排显著稳定的正向作用,又说明此间技术进步不快,对碳减排的作用尚不明显。基于碳排放明显的区域异质性及不同因素影响的差异性,提出中国要实现2020年碳减排目标,必须尽快制定符合区域特征的差异化碳减排策略;加快产业结构调整和技术创新,努力构建区域低碳经济发展模式。

According to the reality of China,the paper modified carbon emission factors and estimate the carbon emissions of each province from 1995 to 2014. We constructs a econometric model based on panel data,and examines the regional differences and their influencing factors of long-term and short-term dynamic evolution of carbon emissions in the eastern,central,western and northeastern. We find that economic,social,political and technical factors have a significant impact（over 98%） on the dynamic evolution of carbon emissions across the country,particularly as a result of economic and technological factors. We also find that the technical factors have a significant positive effect on the long and short trends in the dynamic evolution of carbon emissions in all regions. The results show that during the period of rapid economic growth in China,there is a serious excessive energy consumption,excessive carbon emissions problem.To achieve the goal of carbon reduction in 2020,it is necessary to formulate differentiated carbon reduction strategies in line with regional characteristics as soon as possible; speed up industrial restructuring and technological innovation,and strive to build a regional low-carbon economic development model.