美国大豆倾销对中国产业损害的认定与评估——基于可计算局部均衡COMPAS模型的分析

Identification and Evaluation of China's Industrial Injury Caused by US Soybean Dumping:Based on Partial Equilibrium COMPAS Model

文章将倾销边际变量引入局部均衡的COMPAS模型,从产业层面深入揭示倾销行为影响进出口国生产、进出口等经济活动的内在机理。在此基础上,将局部均衡COMPAS模型可计算化,利用2011-2015年大豆生产与贸易的相关数据,模拟分析美国大豆在华倾销行为对中美两国及有关国家大豆生产、销售与收益的影响大小。模拟结果表明:美国大豆倾销行为对中国大豆产业造成了实质性损害,国产大豆市场份额减少约10.5%,价格下降约12.1%,产量降低约14.4%,收益损失约22.1%;倾销行为对美国大豆行业发展有利,市场份额、产出与收益均大幅增加;倾销行为具有"挤压效应",使其他国家非倾销企业遭受经济损失。基于研究结论,文章最后为中国大豆行业应对贸易摩擦提出了一些参考性建议。

This paper introduces the dumping marginal variable into the partial equilibrium Commercial Policy Analysis System （COMPAS model） , and reveals the internal mechanism of dumping that affects the economic activities such as production, import and export of the partner country. Then based on partial equilibrium COMPAS model, using the data of soybean production and trade in 2011 -2015, this paper analyzes the effect of dumping on soybean production, sales and gains in China, US and other countries. The simulation results show that due to the dumping of American soybeans in China, domestic soybean market share decreased by about 10.5% , the price of domestic soybeans fell by about 12.1% , production decreased by about 14.4% , revenue loss of about 22.1% ; dumping improved the US soybean industry development, and its market share, output and income increased significantly; dumping had ＂ squeezing effect＂ , so that non-dumping enterprises of other countries suffered economic losses. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for Chinese soybean industry to deal with trade friction.